Essays

May 2008

Crime Reporting/
from Pachamama

By John Guy
s-v Pachamama

Crime and violence reports in the SSCA Bulletin, and on cruising nets, have bothered me since I first heard "The Safety & Security Net" in  2001.  The reasons are:

1.  Chichi and I began a cruising experience precisely to escape some realities of modern life, especially those expressed in the opening sections of almost every local television news broadcast, all based on the principle, "if it bleeds, it leads." The constant repetition, every day, of reports about robberies, murders, rapes, and violent protests or confrontations, becomes weight on our shoulders and generates in us a frustration that large numbers of viewers tune in to obtain such information. Another experience will further explain my frustration. A member of my high school class (1959) began to email members about "news of the class." In the first year, every report was about the death of someone I know. If the pattern were to continue, the result would be 10 to 15 similar reports, every year, for the next 20 years. Not wanting the repetition of such information, I asked to be removed from the email list, although I did request any positive news, such as about personal achievements and experiences, which would be welcome. I have received no positive news since. Positive news enriches life; negative news exacerbates pessimism.

2.  Reports of criminal and violent incidents have no predictive value. A single incident, or even a group of incidents, in no way suggests that other persons will have similar experiences.  Only crime statistics (or opinions of local police authorities), or information about political/social phenomena, have predictive value.

Many reports rendered by cruisers, such as a rape in the leewards, or murders in Costa Rica, create powerful feelings of fear, as well as misimpressions about general security. Some experts talk about cognitive bias, using the following example to prove their point: If a speaker asks an audience "what causes more deaths, automobile accidents, or heart disease," more than 40 percent of the audience will answer "automobile accidents," and almost everyone else will accept a proposition that heart disease is the leading cause by a minor margin, such as 10 percent.  The correct answer is that heart disease beats accidents by ten to one.

The reason for the misimpression is television news, where automobile accidents are routinely reported, but death from heart disease is not. Dramatic reports by cruisers create a cognitive bias. Furthermore, reports might either be inaccurate or out of context. An example is a recent report that an American ex-pat was murdered in his home in Costa Rica, and that police did not follow up. What is not known is the actions of the victim (such as possiblel involvement in the drug trade) that might have prompted the violence.

Another facet of crime reports by cruisers is that few are first person, and most appear to be drawn from second- or third-hand conversations. Even direct reports by victims can be misleading because emotions distort objectivity. Most stories become more grand and exaggerated as they pass from one person to another. Some believe that reporting is a method to "bring about change." If this hypothesis were true, crime in most American cities would decline. The concept is more wishful thinking than reality. Crime is a social and economic phenomenon.  According to Carl Sagan, density of population is a factor as well, as shown in both animal experiments and in relating crime and human population statistics.

The volume of cruisers' crime reports itself is related to the population of cruisers:  the more cruisers in an area, especially cruisers who remain there for long periods, the greater the number of reports. Were it not for the absence of predictive value, I would subordinate my personal bias against such news to the greater need of the cruising community. But since no predictive element is present, I propose that SSCA no longer accept crime reports for publication. My earlier view was that first- person reports are acceptable, but the personal intensity inherent in first-person reports creates greater cognitive bias than second- and third-party reports.  On the other hand, SSCA could accept, and encourage, commentaries about political and social circumstances (such as Chavez's leadership, which tends to endorse action against Americans) as well as reporting of interviews and advice from local police authorities and journalists.