Essays

S/V Pachamama

November 5, 2003

The only thing we fear
is fear itself

By John Guy 

The cruising community creates fear.

We create fear through rumor, gossip, and exaggeration, as well as by our unwillingness to question, to correct, to challenge, and to understand.  We accept reports of crime and violence as truth, though delivered to us by unreliable or prejudiced sources, by persons emotionally affected, by third parties all too willing to pass on the negative and to ignore the positive.  We never hear   statements such as “the crime rate in XYZ is the lowest in five years, similar to Charleston but less than New York.”  Instead, we hear that “I will never go to Venezuela again.  My dinghy and outboard were stolen,” an incident we later learn took place more than three years ago and is similar to incidents routinely reported in Ft. Lauderdale or Annapolis. 

 Fear is profoundly promulgated by single side band “Safety and Security” nets and associated web sites.  For fifteen or twenty minutes each day, we listen to informal reports of thefts and other crime delivered by cruisers who have suffered a loss or who have heard about someone who has suffered a loss. Once in a while, a report is delivered with passion and vehemence by someone directly affected, an individual who needs to experience the personal release provided by telling the story.  These reports are powerful.  They make us wonder about our health and security.  They make us fearful. 

 A few years ago, three friends experienced heart disease. After the third report, I had to act. Although I am neither obese nor a smoker, I experienced pain in the chest and went straight to the doctor for various tests, generating almost $3,000 in fees for my insurance company and me, to learn that I am in good health and that the statistical probability of disease was not increased by the experiences of my friends. My fear and my chest pains arose from a cognitive bias, the same kind of bias generated by the cruising information sources that distribute negative news. No matter how we try to place mind over matter, if given enough negative news, any of us will begin to question and to wonder. With the weight of reported disasters on our shoulders, we change plans, miss opportunities, and sail with guns, spears, extra air horns, and with personal disquiet ironically unknown to us while driving 70 miles an hour on a Los Angeles freeway.

 Information presented in a formal broadcast or on a permanent web site takes on an undeserved image of accuracy and importance.  An example is security reports presented by the Caribbean Cruising Association at its web site, www.caribcruisers.com.  Its South American section has over 15 pages of incidents for three nations (Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela, and Columbia. )  In bulk, the information is intimidating and scary, until we observe that reports go back to 1995, that details are missing, and that sources are not listed. The more we look, the more we doubt.

 Venezuela is feared by cruisers, many avoiding specific areas and/or organizing themselves into convoys for mutual protection. The fears appear to have been generated by a dramatic incident reported in the American press and in a Seven Seas Cruising Association bulletin, as well as by word of mouth at marinas. Everyone seems to know someone who had a problem. However, the Caribbean Cruising Association (as of October 1) reports only two incidents in 2003, one a mugging and loss of a backpack, the other a boarding with loss of cash. Colombia has one report in 2003. Trinidad and Tobago has three. The reports appear to have been drawn from oral presentations on The Safety and Security Net, and from no other source such as police reports or newspapers. The reports confuse. On one hand, we conclude that the number of incidents is small, that the threat is minimal, that the information has no predictive quality, and that we cannot use the information in any practical way to avoid problems. On the other hand,  local newspapers report crime that never makes this net.  We come to believe that this web site and other informal sources are not reporting a complete truth, that crucial information is missing. Instead of creating unrealistic fear, the site might be fomenting unrealistic confidence.   Either way, the weakness is clear. By not presenting police reports and crime statistics, the CCA web site leads either to fear or to overconfidence, depending, perhaps, on the interpretation and propensity of the reader.

 Only reliable statistics and impartial reports give a sound basis for sailing decisions. A detailed police report is objective and thorough (though not perfect).  National and local crime statistics reveal broad truths and the nature of general threats.  Though compelling, the personal stories of individuals are neither predictive nor reliable.  In medicine, a person cured by a specific pharmaceutical praises its efficacy, but broad studies show that it does more harm than good (or vice versa).  Persons who live in cancer clusters have no doubt that a local environmental circumstance causes the disease, but disciplined studies never uncover the cause, and clusters are consistent with the laws of random occurrence.

Sailors, like health care professionals and patients, need meaningful information that is impersonal, accurate and comprehensive. The distributors of information, the intermdiaries who generously volunteer, should meet standards of the professional press and broadcast media. Sporadic reports from random sources do not assist. Data should include positive next to negative. The hypothetical New York City Safety and Security Net can give one side, another side, or both sides. The New York net either can inform us that 25 people were robbed last night, or it can tell us that seven million people lived safetly and securely tghrough another day, or both. Cruisers need reliable pictures from satellites having a wide view. If the satellite that teports crime cannot focus reliably on an event, cannot see a wide area, and cannot present trends by logical progression, cruisers are best served by having no data at all.